TrueJournals

Well, it’s that time of year again!  That’s right, it’s Oscar season.  Since all the nominees were announced a little while ago, and we have 15 short days left until the Oscars, about now is the time when everyone makes their predictions and tries to tell us who is going to win each award.  Of course, we can’t know for certain who will actually win until the winners are announced, but… if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em!

So, while I don’t think of myself as much of a movie critic, and I haven’t even seen all 10 best picture nominees myself, I’m still going to attempt to throw my prediction for who will win best picture at the Oscars this year.  Last year, I went to AMC’s “Best Picture Showcase”, and was able to see all five best picture nominees.  This year, while AMC is running the event again, I won’t be able to attend.  So, I’m not sure I’ll ever get the chance to see all ten nominees, but I’m going to attempt to have an opinion about all the movies anyway.

Before I start, I should note that I am disappointed at the Oscars this year.  Having ten movies get nominated instead of the normal five does not “open the field”.  Instead, it just removes from the title of “best picture nominee”.  Even if a movie doesn’t win the award, it usually still gets bragging rights that it was one of the five best pictures of the year.  However, being in the top ten, while still impressive, is less of a title.  By attempting to give films more credit, they have actually removed the credit from the films that actually deserve it.

Anyway, the list of the ten nominations is as follows:

1. Avatar
2. The Blind Side
3. District 9
4. An Education
5. The Hurt Locker
6. Inglourious Basterds
7. Precious
8. A Serious Man
9. Up
10. Up in the Air

Now, let’s look at what the list actually consists of.  For starters, we see a few rarities on the list: two Sci-Fi movies and an animated feature stick out.  Generally, these two types of movies are left behind by the Oscars, because they lack the mass appeal of the other genres (drama is a favorite).  Which is stupid: there are plenty of Sci-Fi movies or animated films that are better than other genres.  Many people were disappointed at last year’s nominees because “WALL-E” wasn’t nominated.  It seems that, with the presence of “Up”, the Oscars are trying to “make up” for that.  However, at the same time, it can be seen as the only reason that Sci-Fi and animated films have snuck on to the list is due to expanding the list to ten movies, instead of the usual five.

So, who will win?  A lot of people are thinking that, with the momentum of its best motion picture win at the Golden Globe awards, Avatar is a big contender.  As much as I loved the movie Avatar (just search my blog for “Avatar” — I loved it), I doubt it will win Best Picture.  I would LIKE for it to win Best Picture, but I’ll be sightly surprised if it actually happens.  As previously stated, the Academy just doesn’t seem to like Sci-Fi movies, and Avatar falls under that category, and I have to wonder if it would even be on the list if they had stuck to only five nominations, instead of changing it to ten.

The same goes for Up.  It was a great film, but I find it hard to believe that it actually has a chance at winning best picture.  With Up, the Academy also has to fear losing its actors: animated films require only voice actors.  Part of the goal of the academy is to keep actors with jobs, and giving Up the title of “best picture” would lead to more animated films, and less jobs for “body actors”.

Finally, I’ll lump District 9 into this whole “won’t win” category.  Again, it was a great film, but I just don’t see it winning best picture.  I also kind of worry that if a Sci-Fi film wins best picture, we’ll see directors flooding to the genre, and attempting to bring more people into the fan base.  The fact remains that Sci-Fi is not a genre for everyone, and Avatar is the first movie I’ve heard people who normally don’t like Sci-Fi say they like.  So, if a Sci-Fi or animated film is going to win Best Picture, it’s going to be Avatar.

Since this won’t happen, what do we have left?  Well, out of the seven left, I’ve only actually seen The Blind Side.  But, once again, that won’t stop me from making a decision!  I also find it hard to believe that The Blind Side will actually win.  I don’t think it was a bad movie, I just don’t think it’s “Best Picture”-worthy.

Out of those remaining, my vote goes to either Up in the Air, or The Hurt Locker, and out of those two, I would choose Up in the Air.  One by one: An Education sounds a little like The Reader kind of, not really, and it just seems like a movie that won’t win; Inglourious Basterds is, from what I understand, a comedy about Nazis… no offense to anyone, but I just don’t see that winning best picture; Precious is based on a novel, and, in my opinion, the best picture winner has to be something original; A Serious Man is described on IMDB as “A dark comedy”… say no more, it’s not going to win.

Why not The Hurt Locker?  It’s about the war in Iraq, and that can be a touchy subject.  Again, I haven’t seen it, but I just have a feeling that Up in the Air has more of a chance than The Hurt Locker.

Writing all this gives me an idea: “The Uninformed Critic” — writing movie reviews based on what I can find out about them through IMDB and Wikipedia.  Has anyone done this yet?  I might need to start a new series of posts here… We’ll see how that goes…

Anyway, to wrap up, my prediction for Best Picture nominee is Up in the Air.  We’ll see how I do!